How Latest Lockdowns Have Impacted the Australian Economy...

National Key Points

- Employment fell by 138,000 in September. Part-time jobs fell by 164,700, but full-time jobs rose by 26,700.

- The participation rate hit a 15-month low of 64.5% from 65.2%.

- The unemployment rate rose from after 18-month low of 4.5 per cent to 4.6 per cent.

- Hours worked rose by 0.9 per cent but remain 2% below pre-pandemic March 2020 time.

Labour Force Data - September

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Australia September 2021

NSW Key Points

- Unemployment down 0.3% now at 4.6%

- Employment down 24,800

- Hours worked Hours worked up 2.7%

VIC Key Points

- Unemployment up 0.7% now at 4.8%

- Employment down 122,800

- Hours worked down 3.6%

Keep in mind, job statistics is a lagging report.

NSW vs VIC

As a Melburnian, it does make you wonder whether NSW’s lower unemployment rate has to do with Louis Vuitton trying to remain open during a lockdown… But in all seriousness, NSW with its less cautious roadmap, saw 100% of trades (380,000 people) return to worksites late September. As this was occurring, VIC trades were protesting due to an industry wide 2-week long lockdown announcement. The construction industry in both states is crucial to the Australian Economy and are MAJOR employers, hence why I believe the Construction Industry and worksite density limits are a main driver, statistically, for the data which the ABS released on Thursday the 14th of October.

Final thoughts

With the seemingly definite economic recovery leading out of lockdowns and into the Christmas season, put down part-timers (majority of unemployed in sept. statistics) should see a quick return to work amid re-openings. With VIC’s seemingly cautious roadmap in comparison to NSW’s, major industries like construction and hospitality will see a slow return to full capacity, hindering labour statistics and the national economy. With the controversial Authorised Worker Vaccine Mandate in Victoria, which includes all trades, health workers, and others to get vaccinated as requirement of employment, I will be interested to see how many leave their industry due to adverse feelings towards Covid-19 vaccination.